ROSS PEROT, a populist American politician, predicted in the early 1990s that a trade pact with Mexico would create a ‘‘giant sucking sound’’ as jobs headed south. Instead, America experienced full employment. So giant-sucking-sound detectors turned to China. In time, China became the workshop of the world, although by then America had long hollowed out much of its manufacturing.

Now there really is a giant sucking sound—not one made by the flight of jobs, but by China ferociously hoovering up commodities and raw materials. Although it accounts for roughly 4% of global GDP (measured at market exchange rates), China consumes 30% of the world’s supply of minerals and other raw materials. This time around, the world has not only heard the sucking sound, but has also felt its effects, as the prices of commodities such as iron ore, copper and zinc have soared, doubling or tripling in just a couple of years.

How has China suddenly developed such a big appetite? The economy has been growing at a dizzying rate, recently by double digits. Much of this growth is driven by fixed-asset investment, which now accounts for more than 50% of GDP a year—a higher proportion than that of any other country at any time in history. This relentless capacity for expansion has created an insatiable demand for raw materials.

China also wastes a lot. Take energy consumption. China required 4.3 times as much energy as America in 2005 to produce one unit of GDP, up from 3.4 times in 2002. It can be argued that much of China’s new investment has not yet reached optimal efficiency. That may be true, but it does not explain why things are getting worse: China consumed 15% more energy per unit of GDP in 2005 than it did in 2002. India, also a rapidly expanding economy, consumes only 61% as much energy as China per unit of GDP.

China’s wasteful growth has brought joy to commodity producers and their bankers and shareholders worldwide. With rising profitability and stock prices, they have been happily expanding mining operations and acquiring or merging with rivals. But there are reasons to believe that the surge in commodity prices worldwide has run out of steam.

There is strong evidence that the current cycle of China’s investment-led growth has peaked. A clear sign of overheating is the increase in accounts receivable. Although sales appear robust, Chinese firms are beginning to find it difficult to get paid in cash, either because their buyers cannot turn over their own stocks fast enough or because they have trouble borrowing money to finance their purchases. The receivables of the 166 largest state-controlled Chinese firms rose by 14% in the first half of 2006 from a year earlier. For over a third of these firms, receivables now account for more than 30% of total sales, which is twice as high as the average gross margin for Chinese firms. It was the escalating volume of ‘‘triangular debts’’ or receivables between different domestic firms that led to the overheating and consequent severe austerity programme in the mid-1990s.

China’s growth has become too expensive in many ways. Overinvestment pulls up prices of raw materials but, simultaneously, overcapacity depresses the prices of finished products. Whereas prices of imported raw materials rose sharply between 2003 and 2005, those of Chinese exports to America fell by 5.2%. As a net importer of raw materials and a net exporter of finished products, China is paying a high price for its growth, particularly to commodity-producing countries.

China needs a break to catch its breath, in more ways than one. As anyone who has been to the mainland in recent years knows, all the major cities are choking with smoke and environmental damage has reached appalling levels. The government knows this and during 2006 tightened the screw on the economy several more turns. Interest rates will continue to rise. The trouble is that much of the liquidity comes from hot money, which finds its way into China around foreign-exchange controls in anticipation of a yuan appreciation. Each rise in interest rates only encourages more speculative inflows. This means that China will inevitably allow the yuan to appreciate further in 2007 (though not as sharply as worriers in Washington, DC, would like), while also further relaxing capital controls, to keep the growth of money supply at least partly in check. The central bank has taken other measures to reduce liquidity, including telling banks not to lend to ‘‘overheated sectors’’ such as steel, cement, coal and power, and forcing them to buy central-bank bills.

These measures are already checking investment growth. The economy will grow more slowly in 2007. This will help the country make the transition from investment-led growth to expansion led by private consumption. The slowdown of the American economy, China’s largest export market, will further force China to focus on stimulating domestic demand.

All this suggests that the good times for commodity producers are about to come to an end. Although commodity producers will mourn it, a quietening of China’s roar will help sustain its growth. And, for the health of China and its neighbours, a pause for breath—of cleaner air, one hopes—will definitely be welcome.

       在两年前我去华师大复习考研时，遇到了一个可以说一见钟情的男孩，可以感觉得到，他对我也是有好感的。他当时是统计系的研究生，对于有才的男生我一直是很倾心的。但是迫于考研的压力，我们没有机会发展（我当时在外地上大学），后来我回到学校，只是和他偶尔短信联系。但是，在我心中一直对他有所憧憬！       由于我第一年研究生没考上，所以对他彻底死心。后来一偶然的机会，也许就是缘分吧，我在上海找到了一份很好的工作，这样就为我们的第二次相遇创造了很好的条件，通过他的导师介绍，我们走到了一起。

       他是一个非常稳重的男孩，在我们分开的两年里，他对我一直念念不忘，在现在交往的大半年中，他对我的关怀可谓无微不至！

       我的脾气用上海话来说很作！经常以美貌自居！他的脾气很好，非常宠我！他唯一不好的就是家里的经济条件太差，差到一贫如洗，上研究生是还贷款，现在还要还贷款将近5万元。但是他现在的工作不错，我相信照他的性格肯定会有发展前途，但是对于买房，肯定只有我父母承担，但是我爸妈很喜欢他，认为他的人品就是值得托付终生的，他们愿意出钱买房，一切由他们负担！        在半个月前，经朋友介绍，我认识了一个年龄和我一样的加拿大男孩（长相可以说难看），他是多伦多大学毕业，现在是一个家具公司的区域经理！他的爸爸是一家床上用品连锁店的老板，家里很有钱！（条件是我喜欢的，但是父母和亲戚朋友不同意，认为我和他在一起，肯定会受委屈！我和那个男的联系现在只能通过电话和MSN，通过半个月的了解，我觉得他比较孩子气，可能是出生在经济条件比较好的家庭的缘故吧，可能不太会体会人间冷暖！但是他似乎很喜欢我，甜言蜜语很多。可能是双子座的人都会很浪漫，但是我又担心他这个双子座会三分钟热度！我们两个聊得很开心，他现在似乎已经单方面地爱上了我！（我觉得很夸张，因为我们还没见过面，怎么会爱，最多只是喜欢！但是我对我的长相很自信，相信他即便见到我的真人，也会很喜欢我）我觉得他有时候太草率，不能托付终生！（他现在对于我们将来的计划就是，读两年的研究生，等拿到研究生文凭就把我接到多伦多，和我结婚。下周他就要回来和我见面！我不知道该怎么办! 为了这件事，我和家庭闹翻了。（妈妈觉得他的样子很不好，所以连面都不让我见）.  他们两个人的条件相差太远，可以说是两个极端！我不知道该怎么选择！      

                                                                                                               美作

         美作：

         爱情中的偏见，总的来说，是对男人有利。比如“男人有财就没有才，有才就没有财”，这是女人很难选择，唯一能兼顾的是一妻多夫制，现在看来实行的可能性不大。而“波大无脑”这种迷信对男人来说真是福音：美女都是好骗的——美女身边从来都骗子成堆，世界上本来没有聪明人，上的当多了，也就有了聪明人，她迟早会变得聪明的。

         “波大无脑”认定女性的美貌与智商成反比，这不仅违反了科学原理，更是会触怒那些人，他们始终坚持爱情的政治正确性——亲爱的美作，如果你真的是个美女，我的坚持可能不得不暂时崩溃一下。

          亲爱的美作，我决定给你一个相当明确的建议：嫁给你半个月前认识的多伦多丑财子，放弃那个华师大的穷才子。前者“已经单方面地”爱上了你，嫁给他自然圆他春梦。而后者，虽然让你“一见钟情”，并且有“缘分”，还能以穷小子的姿态征服你的家人（这点我相当崇拜他，要知道一般是长辈嫌贫爱富的，因为不是他们在恋爱，自然会势利一点），这人看来不是凡物，而且“现在的工作不错”，“肯定会有发展前途”，唯一的缺点就是差了5万元钱。5万，多大一笔巨款呀。

          你拒绝他，这个穷小子当然会很伤心。但是一个男人的成长，就像拳击手的胜利之路，没有被击倒过几次，尝尝自己的鲜血味道，终究会有难堪的奶油味和尿臊味。5万，也许以后只是他两个月的工资，但是今天就是这点数让他刻骨铭心：一个男人没有钱，谈一场恋爱，纵使你百宝用尽，把准岳父母哄成亲爹亲妈，也很难逃离屈辱的结局。

          人不为自己的缺陷辩护是成为强者的第一步。你得知道人要不在乎钱，更要知道没有钱人不在乎你。如果你这次选择了他，他也许会得出一个相反的结论，你看，我穷，没关系，我帅，我有才，完全弥补了嘛。当他看一个多伦多的丑男人在半个月之内就击溃了他多年的布局之时，他才可能醒悟，成为一个更加独立的，不依靠他人的男人。

          尤其重要的是，这么重要的男人成长课程，代价只不过是损失一个芙蓉姐姐，多年以后他会觉得庆幸的。

          祝开心。

                                                                                                   连岳